Southport – QLD 2020

LNP 7.2%

Incumbent MP
Rob Molhoek, since 2012.

Geography
Northern Gold Coast. Southport includes the suburbs of Ashmore and Molendinar and parts of Benowa, Bundall and Southport.

History
Southport has existed in its current form since the 1977 election. For most of that time the seat was held by the National Party, and then by Labor from 2001 to 2012, when it was won by the LNP.

The seat was first won in 1977 by Liberal candidate Peter White. He held the seat until resigning in 1980 to run for the 1981 by-election for the federal seat of McPherson. He held McPherson until his retirement in 1990.

Doug Jennings won Southport for the National Country Party in 1980. He had previously been the Liberal MP for the Victorian state seat of Westernport from 1976 to 1979, when he was expelled from his party and then lost his seat at the election. He held Southport until his death in 1987.

Mick Veivers won Southport for the National Party in 1987 after Jennings’ death. He served as a minister in the Borbidge coalition government from 1996 to 1998 and continued to hold his seat until his defeat in the landslide election of 2001.

The ALP’s Peter Lawlor won Southport in 2001 with a swing of almost 14% off the National Party. The former Gold Coast City alderman held the seat for four terms, and served as a minister from 2009 to 2011.

In 2012, Lawlor was defeated by LNP candidate Rob Molhoek. Molhoek was re-elected in 2015 and 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
Southport is a reasonably safe LNP seat.

2017 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rob Molhoek Liberal National 12,499 47.1 -2.5
Judy Searle Labor 7,877 29.7 -1.9
Michelle Le Plastrier Greens 2,806 10.6 +2.4
Rick Flori Independent 2,597 9.8 +9.8
Johan Joubert Consumer Rights 769 2.9 +2.9
Informal 1,458 5.2

2017 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rob Molhoek Liberal National 15,197 57.2 -0.6
Judy Searle Labor 11,351 42.8 +0.6

Booth breakdown

Booths in Southport have been divided into three areas: north, south and west.

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the west (52.7%) and the south (61.2%) while Labor narrowly won 50.4% in the north.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.1% in the west to 13% in the north.

Voter group GRN prim LNP 2PP Total votes % of votes
North 13.0 49.6 5,837 22.0
West 10.1 52.7 4,537 17.1
South 10.5 61.2 3,137 11.8
Pre-poll 8.1 61.9 7,851 29.6
Other votes 12.1 60.5 5,186 19.5

Election results in Southport at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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12 COMMENTS

  1. *Ben the geography summary here needs to change dramatically, and think it hasn’t been updated since pre-2017 re-distribution. Arundel and Parkwood are in Bonney while here is Benowa and Bundall.

    Looking at the 2PP map I can understand the ALP small booths in the middle, but surprised Ashmore isn’t more Labor. Benowa being strongly Liberal makes sense and with this electorate feeling the pain of jobs (tourism etc) and border restrictions, I expect the LNP margin to blow out.

    Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain

  2. I think LNP will hold. And Southport was a seat Labor targeted heavily when Peter Beattie only had a one seat majority going up to the 2001 state election. It was considered one of the more realistic winnable seats for Labor on the Gold Coast. But the redistribution has moved it from marginal to semi-safe seat for the LNP.

    I’ve read Rob Molhoek is considered a potential leader by some in the LNP. However, it probably needs to be taken in context. He is probably further down the pecking order then David Crisafulli and Tim Mander.

  4. ^ I sincerely doubt Rob Molhoek is considered as a future leader, given there was talks of him retiring this year. I expect this will be his last term.

    If Deb loses, I expect it’ll be a battle between Mander and Crisafulli for leader, with an outside chance of Bleijie.

  5. Why would an MP who only won Mundingbarra in 2012 then defeated in 2015 then came back to a safe seat in 2017 who has never served on the ministry be elected leader? I can give dozens of LNP Mps who are more likely to be leader. And his youth and inexperience would work against him

  6. @Daniel, Crisafulli was a minister for the whole term 2012-2015.

    And he is not that young, though not saying that he or anyone in particular should be leader.

  7. The argument over who will take over from Frecklington after her defeat in October sums up what people think about her performance and how electorate will vote. In 52 elections since 1972 I have never previously given my primary vote to ALP but Chris Whiting has my vote in Bancroft.

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